Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Newcastle welcome newly resurgent Hull City to St. James' Park on 19 September 2026 in Premier League Regular Season - 5, with both sides looking to consolidate promising early-season platforms. The Magpies have been inconsistent but competitive, taking 5 points from their opening 4 matches, while Hull have started impressively, sitting in the top four after an unbeaten run.

With St. James' Park providing the backdrop and early-season momentum on the line, this fixture has all the ingredients of a key benchmark for both teams’ ambitions. Newcastle need to turn home draws into wins to stay in touch with the European spots, whereas Hull will see this as a litmus test of how sustainable their strong defensive numbers and unbeaten record really are.

For bettors and analysts, Newcastle vs Hull City betting tips and predictions are particularly intriguing here: the market strongly favours the hosts, but the underlying stats and recent form suggest this could be much tighter than the odds imply.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Stats

• Newcastle are 12th in the Premier League with 5 points from 4 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 8.
• The last competitive meeting at St. James' Park between these sides ended 2-2 on 20 September 2014 in the Premier League.
• Hull City have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 Premier League matches this season, conceding only 2 goals in total.

Newcastle vs Hull City — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 12 vs 4
• Points: 5 vs 8
• Goals For: 7 vs 5
• Goals Against: 8 vs 2
• Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Hull City 3 (tournament statistics)

Newcastle’s mid-table position reflects a mixed start: one win, two draws and one defeat from 4 matches. They have been entertaining but vulnerable, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game across those fixtures. At home, they remain unbeaten but have drawn both matches, scoring and conceding 4.

Hull City, by contrast, sit 4th with 8 points, unbeaten with two wins and two draws. Their foundation has been defensive solidity: just 2 goals conceded in 4 games, with 3 clean sheets. While they score slightly less than Newcastle (1.3 goals per game), their balance between a compact 5-4-1 structure and efficient attacking transitions has been far more stable so far.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Matchups

Y. Wissa vs M. Belloumi

With no Newcastle player featuring in the top scorers or top assists lists, Yoane Wissa stands out via the disciplinary stats as a high-usage attacking midfielder/forward. He has 4 Premier League appearances, all as a starter, with 351 minutes played, 1 goal and 1 assist. His volume is notable: 7 shots (2 on target), 64 passes with 4 key passes, and heavy involvement in duels (61 total, 27 won). He also draws a lot of fouls (11) and has already collected 2 yellow cards, underlining his combative style.

On the Hull side, Mohamed Elbachir Belloumi has been the standout performer. In 4 appearances and 315 minutes, he has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist, directly contributing to 3 of Hull’s 5 league goals. He has 8 shots (3 on target), 48 passes with 3 key passes, and a solid 7.22 average rating. Defensively, he contributes with 10 tackles, 3 blocks and 9 interceptions, making him crucial in both phases. The duel between Wissa’s direct running and Belloumi’s all-round midfield influence will be central to who controls territory and tempo.

O. McBurnie vs Newcastle Back Line

Oliver McBurnie appears in both the top yellow cards and top red cards lists, despite having no red cards so far. He has 4 starts, 352 minutes, 1 assist and 6 shots (3 on target). More importantly, he is a constant physical presence: 74 duels contested, 36 won, and 9 fouls drawn. Against a Newcastle defence that concedes 2.0 goals per game and has yet to keep a clean sheet at home, McBurnie’s aerial and physical threat could stretch a back line that has already shipped 8 goals in 4 matches.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two clubs share a varied recent history across league, cup and friendly competitions, with several high-scoring encounters and tight cup ties. All of the most recent meetings have been played in Hull, bar one at St. James' Park.

• 27 July 2024: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
• 29 November 2016: Hull City 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup, Hull City won 3-1 on penalties)
• 31 January 2015: Hull City 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
• 20 September 2014: Newcastle 2-2 Hull City (Premier League)
• 1 March 2014: Hull City 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of styles. Newcastle’s matches have been open: they average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, with all 4 league games featuring both teams scoring at least once. Hull, on the other hand, combine modest attacking output (1.3 goals per game) with elite defensive numbers (0.5 conceded per game, 3 clean sheets).

The comparison indices give Hull the edge in form (62 vs 38) and defence (80 vs 20), while Newcastle rate slightly higher in attack (58 vs 42). The prediction model gives Newcastle only a 10% chance of winning, with a 45% probability of a draw and 45% for a Hull victory, pointing strongly towards Hull avoiding defeat. However, the betting market has Newcastle as a clear favourite at around 1.53–1.63 (implied roughly 61–65%), while Hull are out at 4.76–5.49 (about 18–21%).

Balancing these, the most likely game script is Newcastle controlling possession at home but struggling to break down Hull’s organised 5-4-1, while Belloumi and McBurnie pose a threat on transitions and set pieces. Given Hull’s defensive record and the high model probability for draw/Hull, a tight, low-scoring contest with shared points looks a realistic call.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 1-1 Hull City

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent Premier League form reads one win, two draws and one defeat across 4 matches. They have been strong going forward but leaky at the back, scoring 7 and conceding 8. At St. James' Park, they are unbeaten but have drawn both games, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their form profile is inconsistent: they have a modest positive streak in terms of avoiding back-to-back defeats, but no sustained winning run yet.

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City come into this fixture unbeaten in the league, with two wins followed by two draws. They have taken 8 points from 4 matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding just 2. The defensive side is particularly impressive: 3 clean sheets, including both home games and one away. While they have not blown teams away offensively, their ability to manage games and avoid defeat has been a defining feature of their early-season form.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, T. Livramento, L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Willock, J. Murphy, Y. Wissa; Forwards: A. Elanga.

Newcastle’s squad list and season statistics point towards a 4-2-3-1 shape, which has been their most used formation. Nick Pope offers experience in goal, with Sven Botman and Dan Burn likely to anchor the back line, supported by full-backs Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall. In midfield, the physical presence of Joelinton and the technical profile of Nico González and Joe Willock provide balance, while Jacob Murphy and Yoane Wissa offer width and direct running. Anthony Elanga is a natural candidate to lead the line or operate as a high, wide forward. The depth on the bench, including attacking options like W. Osula and H. Barnes, gives Newcastle flexibility to chase the game if needed.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Butland; Defenders: L. Coyle, J. Egan, S. Ajayi, R. Giles, B. Norton-Cuffy; Midfielders: H. Morita, E. Matazo, M. Belloumi; Forwards: O. McBurnie, J. Gelhardt.

Hull have consistently used a 5-4-1 setup, and their squad composition supports that structure. Jack Butland is a reliable presence in goal, protected by a back three featuring John Egan and Semi Ajayi, with full-backs or wing-backs such as Lewie Coyle, Ryan Giles and Brooke Norton-Cuffy providing width and defensive cover. In midfield, Hidemasa Morita and Eliot Matazo can anchor the centre, allowing M. Belloumi to roam between the lines as the creative hub. Up front, O. McBurnie’s physicality and hold-up play, supported by the movement of J. Gelhardt or another mobile forward, give Hull a strong outlet for counter-attacks and set pieces.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

• None reported.

Hull City:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Hull City

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles stand out from the statistical and market profile of this match:

• Result Tip: Back Hull City +0.5 on the handicap (Hull City or Draw). The prediction model gives Newcastle only a 10% chance to win, with 45% each for draw and Hull. Hull are unbeaten, defensively solid, and rank higher in the form and defensive indices. While the 1X2 market heavily favours Newcastle at 1.53–1.63 (implied roughly 61–65%), Hull’s odds of 4.76–5.49 (about 18–21%) and the high probability of them avoiding defeat make the double-chance angle attractive. Use the draw and away prices in your chosen bookmaker’s handicap market to structure this bet.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Newcastle average 3.8 total goals per game, but Hull matches average just 1.8, and Hull have kept 3 clean sheets in 4. Both teams’ under/over profiles show a tendency towards low-scoring games: neither side has gone over 2.5 goals in the league according to their thresholds. With Hull likely to sit deep in a 5-4-1 and Newcastle facing a compact block, a tight affair with limited chances is plausible. Look for under 2.5 goals in the totals market; odds will vary by bookmaker but are likely to be playable given the contrast between Newcastle’s attack and Hull’s defence.
• Value Tip: M. Belloumi to score or assist. Belloumi has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances, directly involved in 60% of Hull’s league goals. He also contributes 3 key passes and 8 shots, showing both goal threat and creativity. Against a Newcastle defence conceding 2.0 goals per game, his dual role as creator and finisher offers strong upside in player-focused markets. Check the anytime goalscorer or goal/assist combined markets, where his price is likely to be more generous than his underlying impact suggests.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.