Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Newcastle welcome Bournemouth to St. James' Park on 5 September 2026 in a Premier League clash that already feels important near the top and bottom ends of the early table. With four points from their first two games, Newcastle sit 6th and will see this as a chance to consolidate a strong start in front of their own fans.

Bournemouth, by contrast, have taken just one point from their opening two fixtures and come into the weekend in 14th. They have caused Newcastle plenty of problems at this ground in recent seasons, but with the hosts unbeaten and scoring freely so far, this Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction leans towards the home side while still respecting the Cherries’ counter‑attacking threat.

For bettors and fans alike, this Newcastle vs Bournemouth preview focuses on key stats, recent form, head‑to‑head trends and standout players such as Anthony Elanga, Yoane Wissa and Evanilson to identify the best angles before kick‑off at St. James’ Park.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Key Stats

• Newcastle are 6th with 4 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 draw), scoring 4 and conceding 2.
• Bournemouth have taken 1 point from 2 games, sitting 14th with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded.
• Bournemouth won 2-1 at St. James' Park in the Premier League on 18 April 2026 and 4-1 there on 18 January 2025.
• Newcastle average 2.0 goals scored per game and 1.0 conceded across their first 2 league fixtures.
• Bournemouth average 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded per match over their opening 2 league games.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 14
• Points: 4 vs 1
• Goals For: 4 vs 2
• Goals Against: 2 vs 3
• Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 (tournament statistics), Bournemouth 0 (tournament statistics)

Newcastle’s early‑season profile is that of a side in control: unbeaten after two games, with a positive goal difference of +2 and a clean sheet already recorded away from home. Their attack has started brightly, with 4 goals in 2 matches, and they have yet to taste defeat.

Bournemouth’s numbers tell a more fragile story. One point from two fixtures and a goal difference of -1 leave them in the bottom half. They have found the net in both games but are still chasing their first clean sheet, conceding late in matches — a worrying pattern when visiting a side that finishes strongly at home.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Key Matchups

A. Elanga vs Evanilson

Anthony Elanga has been Newcastle’s standout attacking threat so far. In 2 league appearances (both starts), he has scored 2 goals from 4 shots, with 3 efforts on target. A rating of 7.75 underlines his influence, while 35 completed passes and 1 key pass show he contributes in build‑up as well as in the box. His dribbling (2 successful from 3 attempts) and 9 duels won from 14 highlight a direct, aggressive style that can trouble Bournemouth’s back line.

For Bournemouth, Evanilson has been the creative hub. Across 2 starts and 156 minutes, he has delivered 2 assists and 3 key passes from 36 total passes with 75% accuracy. Though he has yet to score, his ability to link play and draw fouls (5 won) makes him central to Bournemouth’s transition game. How well Newcastle contain Evanilson between the lines will go a long way to deciding whether the visitors can carve out enough chances.

Y. Wissa vs Bournemouth back four

Yoane Wissa has quickly become another key piece of Newcastle’s attack. In 2 appearances (both starts, 171 minutes), he has 1 goal and 1 assist, 6 shots (2 on target), and 2 key passes. His physical presence is notable: 32 duels contested with 18 won and 8 fouls drawn, plus 5 tackles. Those numbers point to a player who presses relentlessly and occupies defenders physically.

Up against a Bournemouth defence that has already conceded 3 goals in 2 games and has no clean sheets, Wissa’s work rate and movement between centre‑backs and full‑backs could be decisive, especially if Bournemouth sit deep and invite pressure.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has been anything but straightforward for Newcastle in recent seasons, with Bournemouth repeatedly taking points both home and away. The recent head‑to‑head record is full of goals and tight contests.

• 18 April 2026: Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
• 10 January 2026: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth (FA Cup, Newcastle won 7-6 on penalties)
• 21 September 2025: Bournemouth 0-0 Newcastle (Premier League)
• 18 January 2025: Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth (Premier League)
• 25 August 2024: Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

Stats suggest a tight but home‑leaning contest. Newcastle are unbeaten (1 win, 1 draw) with 4 goals scored and only 2 conceded, and their comparison indices are superior across the board: they lead Bournemouth on form, attack and defence in the analytical model. However, the head‑to‑head pattern at St. James’ Park is a clear warning — Bournemouth have won 2-1 and 4-1 on their last two league visits.

The probability model gives Newcastle a 45% chance of victory, the draw also at 45%, and Bournemouth just 10%. That aligns with the betting market, where Newcastle are clear favourites at around 2.10–2.22, implying roughly 45–48% win probability, while Bournemouth sit in the 2.75–3.23 range (about 31–36%). With both teams averaging at least a goal per game and Bournemouth conceding late, Newcastle’s attacking depth through Elanga and Wissa should eventually tell, but the visitors have enough in transition, especially via Evanilson, to get on the scoresheet.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 2-1 Bournemouth

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent form in the Premier League reads “WD”, reflecting a strong, unbeaten start. Across 2 matches they have 1 win and 1 draw, with 4 goals scored (2.0 per game) and 2 conceded (1.0 per game). They have yet to fail to score and already have 1 clean sheet in their tournament statistics, underlining a balanced, resilient profile.

Bournemouth Recent Form

Bournemouth’s recent form is “DL”, pointing to an inconsistent opening. They have drawn at home and lost away, with 2 goals scored (1.0 per game) and 3 conceded (1.5 per game). They have not kept a clean sheet yet, and all 3 goals conceded have come in the 76–90 minute window, suggesting vulnerability late on.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, F. Schär, T. Livramento or L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Willock, J. Murphy, J. Ramsey; Forwards: A. Elanga, Y. Wissa, H. Barnes.

Newcastle’s squad list and early‑season statistics point towards a 4-2-3-1 shape, which they have used in both league fixtures. N. Pope provides experience in goal, with Botman, Burn and Schär offering aerial strength at the back. In midfield, Joelinton and Nico González give physicality and control, while J. Willock adds late runs from deep. Out wide and up front, Elanga and Wissa are the primary threats, supported by the likes of H. Barnes and impact options such as J. Murphy and J. Ramsey from the bench.

Bournemouth Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Di Gregorio or Đ. Petrović; Defenders: M. Aarons, Antònio Silva, B. Diakité, A. Truffert; Midfielders: T. Adams, L. Cook, R. Christie, M. Tavernier; Forwards: Evanilson, J. Kluivert.

Bournemouth have also favoured a 4-2-3-1 setup in their first two league games. Di Gregorio or Petrović should start in goal behind a back four that may feature Aarons and Truffert as full‑backs with Antònio Silva and Diakité centrally. In midfield, Adams and Cook offer energy and ball‑winning, while Christie and Tavernier provide creativity from advanced roles. Evanilson’s link play and J. Kluivert’s movement give Bournemouth a mobile front line capable of exploiting space behind Newcastle’s high defensive line.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Bournemouth Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

• None reported.

Bournemouth:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Newcastle to win. The prediction model gives Newcastle a 45% win chance versus just 10% for Bournemouth, with the draw also at 45%. The market prices the home win between 2.10 and 2.22, implying roughly 45–48% probability. Given Newcastle’s stronger recent form (“WD”) and superior attacking numbers (4 goals in 2 games), those odds look fair for a home‑favouring bet.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Newcastle’s matches average 3.0 goals (4 scored, 2 conceded in 2 games), while Bournemouth’s average 2.5 (2 scored, 3 conceded). Recent head‑to‑heads at St. James’ Park have finished 1-2, 2-2, 1-4 and 1-1, all clearing the 1.5 line. Look for an over 1.5 goals price around the standard range at major bookmakers, using it as a safer anchor in multiples.
• Value Tip: Newcastle to score 2 or more goals. Elanga (2 goals) and Wissa (1 goal, 1 assist) are in strong early form, and Newcastle average 2.0 goals per game so far. Bournemouth concede 1.5 per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. With home win odds around 2.10–2.22 and Bournemouth’s defensive fragility, markets related to Newcastle scoring at least twice could offer attractive value compared to the straight match‑winner line.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.