Jamal Murray's Path to All-NBA in 2026-27

The Denver Nuggets don’t have forever.

Nikola Jokic is still the best fulcrum in basketball, but even his prime has a shelf life. Denver’s front office knows it. So does Jamal Murray, whose 2026-27 season looms as the swing point between another title push and the slow fade that swallows most contenders.

The projections say Murray is about to deliver one of the most complete campaigns of his career. They also say there’s a catch.

A leaner shot diet, a different kind of star

Denver’s biggest problem last season wasn’t accuracy. It was volume.

The Nuggets ranked just 26th in the league with 87.8 field-goal attempts per game, despite shooting a blistering 49.6 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from three — second and first in the NBA, respectively. They weren’t missing. They just weren’t shooting enough.

That’s where Murray’s role sharpens.

Per 36-minute projections for 2026-27 suggest a slightly trimmed scoring load but a more balanced offensive profile. Once translated to per-game numbers at his familiar 35.4 minutes, Murray is projected to average 23.7 points on 17.5 field-goal attempts.

That’s a small step down from his career-high 25.4 points on 18.1 attempts, not a plunge. The context matters: Denver has added DeMar DeRozan, a proven 21.1-point-per-game scorer from his stint with the Kings. Murray won’t have to carry the same isolation burden. He just has to be ruthlessly efficient.

The numbers say he will be.

He’s projected to hit 42.1 percent from three — the third-best mark of his career — while maintaining a 47.9 percent field-goal percentage, also tracking as his third-best season. If Denver wants to turn elite efficiency into elite volume, that kind of shooting from its lead guard is non-negotiable.

Murray’s scoring may dip on paper. His impact doesn’t have to.

Defense and dirty work: the quieter leap

The most intriguing jump in Murray’s projections doesn’t come on the scoring line. It’s in the grind.

He’s forecast to average 4.3 rebounds and 0.5 blocks per game, both flirting with the best defensive numbers of his career. Those are modest figures in isolation, but they speak to a guard who is more active in the gaps, more willing to challenge at the rim, more engaged in the possessions that don’t end with the ball in his hands.

His instincts in the passing lanes are also expected to resurface. Murray is projected to get back to 1.1 steals per game, a bump that reflects his growth as a point-of-attack defender rather than a stat-chaser gambling for strips.

For a Nuggets team that often leans on Jokic to clean up mistakes, a more disruptive Murray on the perimeter changes the math. It’s not just about stopping a possession. It’s about igniting one.

From scorer to organizer

The real hinge of Denver’s season, though, sits in Murray’s playmaking.

Too often in recent years, the Nuggets’ offense has looked like a one-man orchestra. Jokic as the hub, everyone else orbiting around his genius. When that works, it’s beautiful. When it doesn’t, it becomes predictable and easier to scheme against in seven-game series.

Murray’s projected 6.7 assists per game for 2026-27 cut directly into that predictability.

That figure would be the second-highest of his career, just behind the 7.1 assists he posted in 2025-26. Given the scoring gravity of Jokic, DeRozan, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun, there’s a realistic path for Murray to surpass even that career-best mark if the finishing holds.

This is where Denver’s roster construction comes into focus. Tyus Jones arrives with a reputation as a steady hand, but he’s coming off a season in which he averaged only 2.4 assists, far below his 7.3-assist peak with the 2023-24 Wizards. He may eventually steady the second unit, yet the immediate responsibility to organize, to bend defenses, to dictate tempo still falls on Murray.

If he embraces that, the Nuggets’ offense stops being Jokic-or-bust and starts to look like a two-headed machine again.

The ghost that won’t leave

There is, however, one number that refuses to cooperate.

Turnovers.

For nine years, Murray has wrestled with ball security. His usage, his dual role as scorer and creator, and Denver’s reliance on him when Jokic sits have all fed into that problem. The projections don’t suggest a breakthrough yet.

Murray is forecast to average 2.3 turnovers per game in 2026-27 — a career high and well above the 1.7-turnover league average for point guards. If that holds, it would mark the third time in nine seasons that he sets a new personal high in giveaways.

This is the tax on responsibility. When Jokic rests, Murray often becomes the sole offensive engine, forced to manufacture shots and advantages against set defenses. Mistakes follow. The hope inside Denver’s building will be that Jones’ presence and DeRozan’s on-ball craft siphon off enough pressure to pull those turnover numbers down, not push them higher.

Because this is the catch.

A more aggressive, more creative, more central Murray makes Denver terrifying. A sloppier one hands opponents the lifeline they need in playoff minutes that decide series and, potentially, eras.

All-NBA or just almost?

So the question hangs over the Rockies: can Jamal Murray climb back to All-NBA status in 2026-27?

The projections offer a clear roadmap. The scoring remains high-level, even with DeRozan in the fold. The efficiency stays elite. The defensive metrics tick up. The playmaking grows into something closer to a true floor general than a scoring guard who happens to pass.

If he tightens his handle under pressure and trims those turnovers, the rest of the profile looks like an All-NBA guard steering a contender deep into June.

If he doesn’t, Denver will still be dangerous, still beautifully built around Jokic — but maybe just vulnerable enough for the new wave of challengers to push them aside.

The window is still open. How wide it stays might come down to how cleanly Jamal Murray can hold onto the ball when everything else around him is on fire.