US Open 2023: Sabalenka's Pursuit of History and Djokovic's Challenge

Aryna Sabalenka has been here before, standing on the edge of history with New York at her feet.

Back-to-back US Open champion. World No. 1. The woman everyone circles in red ink when the draw drops.

This time, the stakes cut a little deeper.

Sabalenka is chasing a three-peat in Queens, something no woman has done since Serena Williams ruled Flushing Meadows from 2012 to 2014. One more title and she steps into a club that, in the modern era, has essentially been Serena-only territory. At the same time, her grip on the top ranking is loosening. A season that has felt ordinary by her standards has left the door ajar for Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff to barge through.

The draw has only sharpened that tension. The path to history is lined with danger.

On the men’s side, the picture looks very different. No Jannik Sinner, injured and out. Carlos Alcaraz coming back to singles after nearly four months away. Between them, they’ve taken three of the last four US Open titles. Their absence at full strength leaves a vacuum.

Novak Djokovic, chasing a record 25th Grand Slam title at 39, doesn’t get to stroll into it. His route is brutal. The American men, on the other hand, might not get a better chance than this for years.

The draw has spoken. Some came out smiling. Others, not so much.

Rybakina’s opening, if her body holds

Elena Rybakina knows exactly what this fortnight could mean.

Reach the semifinals and she becomes World No. 1 for the first time. That’s the math. The problem is the body. Achilles soreness flared in Cincinnati last week, and she hasn’t even confirmed she’ll play.

If she does, the draw gives her a soft runway.

She opens against Thea Frodin, then likely faces Darja Vidmanova in the second round. Two matches to test the ankle, two matches to see if she can trust her movement before the real storm arrives.

Then the names change and the temperature rises.

A potential third-round clash with Maria Sakkari. A possible fourth-round showdown with Naomi Osaka, a two-time US Open champion who knows every echo of this stadium. Survive that and Rybakina could run into former World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals, a rematch of the Canadian Open final Swiatek took earlier this month.

Rybakina has never been beyond the fourth round in New York. This draw gives her a chance to rewrite that history—and maybe claim the top ranking—if her Achilles doesn’t betray her.

A rare opening for American men

Every year, the same number hangs over the US Open like a stubborn cloud: 2003.

That was the last time an American man won the title, when Andy Roddick lifted the trophy and no one imagined the drought would last decades. It has. And every August, the question returns.

This year, the answer might finally change.

With Sinner out and Alcaraz still feeling his way back after a long layoff, the men’s field is as open as it has been in years. Six Americans sit inside the world’s Top 25: Ben Shelton (No. 9), Taylor Fritz (No. 10), Frances Tiafoe (No. 12), Learner Tien (No. 15), Brandon Nakashima (No. 17) and Tommy Paul (No. 21).

They’re not just ranked; they’re relevant.

Fritz took a hard-court title in Washington, D.C. Shelton did the same in Montreal. Nakashima reached the Montreal final, Tiafoe the final in Cincinnati. These aren’t distant warmups. They’re fresh results on the same surface, against many of the same players.

The draw doesn’t guarantee an American breakthrough. It does something more important: it makes the idea believable again.

Pegula’s clearest shot yet

Jessica Pegula has stopped talking in cautious tones.

Her stated goal is simple: “win the tournament.” For once, the draw doesn’t argue with her.

She opens against Elena-Gabriela Ruse, then gets the winner of Venus Williams vs. Sofia Kenin. That second-round match will carry all the emotion and noise, but on paper, Pegula will like her chances against either.

From there, the road stays manageable for a player of her consistency.

A possible third-round meeting with No. 31 seed Leylah Fernandez, then a likely fourth-round encounter with No. 16 Sorana Cirstea, a player Pegula has beaten three times in four meetings. The real test begins in the quarterfinals, where No. 7 Karolina Muchova or No. 9 Elina Svitolina could be waiting.

Beyond that lies Sabalenka, the woman who has slammed the door on Pegula’s biggest stages.

Sabalenka beat her in straight sets in last year’s US Open final, the only Grand Slam final Pegula has reached. She also stopped Pegula in the semifinals here the year before. The draw suggests they’re on another collision course.

If Pegula truly wants to win this tournament, she knows exactly who she’ll probably have to go through.

First-round fire: Fils, Tsitsipas, Chwalińska, Townsend

The draw didn’t waste time serving up drama.

On the men’s side, No. 10 seed Arthur Fils against Stefanos Tsitsipas is a first-round match that looks like a second week showdown. Fils rides into New York off his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, where he beat Frances Tiafoe in three sets in the final. Confidence is not an issue.

Tsitsipas has not survived the second round at any major this year. Still, this is a player who has contested two Grand Slam finals, at the 2021 French Open and 2023 Australian Open. He knows how to play big matches on big courts, and he will not quietly accept the role of stepping stone.

On the women’s side, one first-round pairing jumps off the page: No. 20 seed Maja Chwalińska, the 2026 French Open finalist, against American Taylor Townsend.

Townsend saves some of her best tennis for New York. She’s reached the fourth round here twice, including last year, and her aggressive, net-rushing style tends to light up the night sessions. Chwalińska brings clay-court pedigree and a rising hard-court game. The clash of styles alone makes it must-watch.

You won’t need a warm-up period. The tournament starts at full speed.

Djokovic’s gauntlet to 25

Novak Djokovic has spent his career turning brutal draws into trophies. He’ll need every ounce of that resilience again.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion opens against Mariano Navone in their first-ever meeting, a calm start before the storm. From there, the names on his sheet look like a highlight reel of recent years.

In the second round, he could see Matteo Berrettini, the 2021 Wimbledon finalist, or three-time major champion Stan Wawrinka, a man who has beaten Djokovic in Grand Slam finals before. The third round could bring No. 27 Tomas Etcheverry, then possibly No. 16 Brandon Nakashima or No. 23 Andrey Rublev in the fourth.

The pressure only ramps up.

No. 7 Daniil Medvedev, a former US Open champion and one of the few men to beat Djokovic in a major final, looms as a projected quarterfinal opponent. In the semifinals, No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, No. 8 Ben Shelton or No. 10 Arthur Fils could stand in his way.

If Djokovic survives all that, the final could pit him against current World No. 1 Alexander Zverev.

To reach 25, he may have to cut through almost an entire generation.

Sabalenka’s uneasy shot at history

Aryna Sabalenka has chased a three-peat before and come up short.

At the 2025 Australian Open, she stood one title away from three straight crowns in Melbourne. Rybakina stopped her cold. Now New York offers her a second chance at a slice of dominance that defines careers.

This time, the context is harsher.

Sabalenka has yet to win a major this season. Her nearly 100-week stay at No. 1 is under threat. And her draw is littered with players capable of making that threat very real.

She could see No. 27 Barbora Krejcikova in the third round, a Grand Slam champion with the tools to disrupt anyone’s rhythm. The fourth round could bring No. 15 Diana Shnaider, a rising force with nothing to lose. The quarterfinals may line up No. 6 Linda Noskova, the 2026 Wimbledon champion, already proven on the sport’s biggest stages.

History rarely comes easy. For Sabalenka, it may come only through a minefield.

Gauff’s brutal road through the chaos

Coco Gauff arrives in New York with momentum and a target on her back.

She just lifted the trophy in Cincinnati, but the reward for that title is one of the toughest paths in the women’s draw.

In the second round, Gauff could meet Paula Badosa or Daria Kasatkina. Neither is seeded this year, but both once lived in the Top 10. Badosa, in particular, brings recent scar tissue for Gauff—she beat the American on grass in Berlin in June.

The third round could pit Gauff against No. 28 Sara Bejlek, a rematch of their Cincinnati semifinal last week that Gauff controlled 6-4, 6-1 before beating Pegula in the final.

The fourth round offers no relief. No. 14 Iva Jovic or No. 17 Alexandra Eala could be waiting, both dangerous enough to turn a bad day into a shock exit.

If Gauff reaches the quarterfinals here for the third time, the names get even heavier.

No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, the 2026 French Open champion, is a likely opponent. Gauff leads their head-to-head 5-0, including a straight-sets win on clay in Rome just before Andreeva’s Roland Garros triumph. On hard courts, Gauff’s lone meeting with her ended 6-3, 6-2 in the second round of the 2023 US Open.

But the matchup that might define this section could be all-American.

Amanda Anisimova, the No. 10 seed and last year’s US Open finalist, could also stand across the net in the quarters. She leads Gauff 2-1 in their rivalry and knows exactly how to handle the New York spotlight.

Beyond that, No. 2 Elena Rybakina or No. 8 Iga Swiatek could block Gauff’s route to the final. Rybakina owns titles at Wimbledon (2022) and this year’s Australian Open. Swiatek has six Grand Slam singles titles, including the 2022 US Open, and spent 125 weeks as World No. 1.

For the reigning Cincinnati champion, this draw is less a pathway and more a gauntlet.

Tiafoe’s favorite stage, toughest test

No city brings out Frances Tiafoe quite like New York.

Two of his three Grand Slam semifinal runs (2022, 2024) have come at the US Open. The crowd feeds him; he feeds the crowd. This year, though, he arrives with questions hanging over his right hand.

Earlier this month, Tiafoe underwent surgery to remove a cyst. Days later, against medical advice, he played Cincinnati anyway. He surged all the way to the final before Arthur Fils beat him 6-3, 1-6, 6-0. Tiafoe took a medical timeout during that match and then pulled out of mixed doubles at the US Open, prompting concern about his fitness for singles.

The draw gives him a small window to settle.

He opens against fellow American Martin Damm Jr., then could face Australian Aleksandar Vukic in the second round. Tiafoe holds the head-to-head edge over both, and those early matches should let him test the hand without immediately facing a top seed.

Then the mountain rises.

A projected fourth-round date with No. 7 Daniil Medvedev, followed by a possible quarterfinal with No. 4 Novak Djokovic and a semifinal against No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz.

If Tiafoe is going to turn his favorite major into something more than a deep run, he’ll have to do it the hard way.

Venus Williams, one more walk into the light

The Williams name has already echoed through this US Open before a ball is struck in singles.

Serena Williams, playing mixed doubles with Carlos Alcaraz, thrilled the crowd in a quarterfinal run that felt like a bonus chapter. Now, it’s Venus Williams’ turn to step back into the glare.

At 46, Venus will play her 26th US Open after receiving a wild card into the main draw. The nostalgia is powerful, but the draw shows no mercy.

She opens against Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open champion on hard courts. Venus’ last two singles appearances at majors—the US Open last year and the Australian Open this season—both ended in the first round.

This time, the task is no easier. The opponent is younger, battle-tested, and comfortable on the surface. The stakes are simple: one more chance, under the lights, to show there’s still a little magic left in that serve and those flat, fearless groundstrokes.

The draw has scattered opportunity and peril in equal measure.

Sabalenka’s chase for history, Djokovic’s march toward 25, the American men sensing an opening, Pegula and Gauff trying to turn promise into hardware—New York won’t wait for anyone to settle in.

By the end of two weeks, the sport could have a new No. 1, a new American hero, or a champion clinging to their throne by the thinnest of margins.

Who’s ready to grab it?