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2026 US Open Predictions: American Stars Shine in New York
The US Open returns to New York on Sunday, and for once the draw feels less like a script and more like a blank page.
In the women’s field, Aryna Sabalenka arrives as the top seed and two-time defending champion, clinging to the No. 1 ranking with three serious threats – Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff – all close enough to knock her off the summit. Serena Williams is only back in doubles, but the sense of transition she once symbolized now hangs over the entire tournament.
On the men’s side, Alexander Zverev is the top seed and freshly crowned French Open champion, Carlos Alcaraz is returning from a four-month injury layoff, and Novak Djokovic is still hunting history. With world No. 1 Jannik Sinner out with a knee injury, the door is cracked open. The question is who dares to walk through.
Against that backdrop, USA TODAY’s tennis team has laid down its markers for the 2026 US Open.
Women’s draw: American storm over Flushing Meadows
The predictions on the women’s side converge on one theme: red, white and blue.
All three reporters see Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula turning New York into a home tournament in more than name, each riding summer form into the last four.
Scooby Axson envisions a semifinal lineup that could light up Arthur Ashe Stadium. Gauff, armed with a serve he believes will hold up under the lights, goes up against five-time major champion Iga Swiatek. Axson has no doubts about Gauff’s ceiling: if the serve lands, he sees her beating the 2022 US Open winner.
On the other side, Axson projects Pegula to face Linda Noskova, the Wimbledon champion and the latest star from Czechia’s astonishing conveyor belt of top-50 talent. Noskova’s grass-court breakthrough doesn’t sway him. He has Pegula advancing in straight sets and into her second US Open final.
Cydney Henderson lands in a similar place, but with more turbulence along the way. She also backs Gauff and Pegula to meet in the final, a rematch of their Cincinnati Open showdown just a week earlier. The path there, though, runs through familiar giants and fragile bodies.
Henderson has Gauff facing Swiatek as well, but only after the Pole navigates – or outlasts – an ailing Rybakina. The Kazakh star’s Achilles soreness clouds her entire fortnight. Henderson doubts Rybakina even makes it to the semifinals, if she reaches the second week at all.
For Pegula, Henderson predicts a blockbuster semifinal with Sabalenka. The stakes are enormous: Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking, Pegula’s chance to finally claim a home Slam, and a mental battle Sabalenka has been losing too often of late. Henderson’s verdict is blunt. The pressure will crush Sabalenka, and Pegula will pounce.
Danielle Lerner completes the American sweep. She also puts Gauff and Pegula into the semifinals, convinced their Cincinnati form will carry across state lines. Her projected cast mirrors Axson’s: Gauff versus Swiatek, Pegula versus Noskova. The difference lies in how she reads the wounded.
Lerner doesn’t see Rybakina’s body holding up after the Achilles issue that forced her out of Cincinnati. A quarterfinal ceiling, at best. Sabalenka, in her view, isn’t in the right headspace either, having looked “mentally shaky” against players she should handle comfortably. That opens the door for Noskova to crash the last four.
When the dust settles, the panel splits on the champion, but not on the star power.
Axson calls an all-American final and sends Buffalo into celebration, picking Pegula to lift her first US Open title and leap to No. 1 in the rankings. It would be a career-defining moment for one of the tour’s most consistent performers.
Henderson and Lerner both plant their flag with Gauff. Henderson leans on momentum: a six-match win streak and a commanding Cincinnati title make it hard for her to look past the 2023 US Open champion. Lerner goes even stronger, describing Gauff’s current surge as “undeniable” and backing her to serve big all fortnight en route to a third Grand Slam crown and a second New York triumph.
In their eyes, the women’s tournament belongs to the Americans. The only debate is which one gets to hold the trophy.
Men’s draw: chaos, opportunity, and a new name in lights?
The men’s event carries a different energy. Less certainty, more intrigue.
With Sinner sidelined, Zverev at the top of the draw, Alcaraz returning cold, and Djokovic still lurking, the bracket feels looser than it has in years. That’s reflected in the wildly different paths sketched by Axson, Henderson and Lerner.
Axson sees this as a breakout stage for Taylor Fritz and Arthur Fils.
For Fritz, he believes this is the tournament tailored for a statement run. The American’s hard-court game and improved resilience could push him deep into the second week. The problem is the top seed waiting for him. Axson has Fritz running into Zverev in the semifinals and coming up short yet again against a higher-ranked heavyweight.
On the other half, Axson refuses to fall into the familiar trap: writing off Djokovic. He expects the 24-time major champion to march into another deep run, but age and time don’t disappear. In Axson’s script, Djokovic finally runs into someone with fresher legs and fewer miles – Arthur Fils.
The 22-year-old Frenchman impressed in Cincinnati, and Axson believes that run was no outlier. He projects Fils not only to beat Djokovic in the semis but to ride that form all the way to the title, beating Fritz in the final. In his view, it’s time to start talking about a new “big three” of Alcaraz, Sinner and Fils.
Henderson reads the same draw and finds a different American rising.
She leans into the long-discussed US men’s title drought and sees a group tired of hearing about it. With Sinner out and Alcaraz short on match play, she expects the home contingent to seize their chance, led by Ben Shelton.
Shelton’s hard-court summer has been uneven – a title in Montreal followed by a quick exit in Cincinnati – but Henderson predicts New York will wake him up. She has him roaring into the semifinals, where he runs into Djokovic. On the other side, she pencils in Zverev against Felix Auger-Aliassime, the third seed chasing his first major final.
Henderson’s final is a bold one: Shelton versus Zverev. And she doesn’t stop there. She has Shelton going all the way, winning his first Grand Slam title in front of a home crowd and ticking off a series of firsts in one fortnight.
Lerner, meanwhile, leans into star power but still acknowledges the volatility.
She calls this one of the most unpredictable US Opens in recent memory, yet she still trusts the two men who have defined the sport’s recent future and past: Alcaraz and Djokovic. Despite Alcaraz’s four-month layoff and Djokovic’s stumbles in recent hard-court events, she expects them to collide in a semifinal that would dominate the tournament narrative.
The road there won’t be smooth. Lerner circles a potential Alcaraz–Shelton quarterfinal as one of the matches of the event, a clash of raw power and shotmaking that could tilt the entire draw.
On the opposite side, Lerner backs Fritz to finally piece together a big run in New York. Seeded ninth, he has the tools to exploit a field missing Sinner and still-adjusting Alcaraz. She projects Fritz into the semifinals, where Zverev, the top seed and French Open champion, awaits.
Her final: Djokovic versus Fritz. A legend chasing a 25th major against an American desperate to prove he belongs in the sport’s inner circle.
Predictions rarely survive contact with a New York fortnight. Bodies break, nerves crack, and names we barely considered in August can own the city by September.
But if the USA TODAY panel is even close to right, this US Open could belong to the Americans, on both sides of the draw. The only thing left to discover is whose name New York will be chanting when the lights go down on Arthur Ashe Stadium.
