US Open Quarterfinals Preview: Sabalenka, Pegula, Gauff, and Alcaraz

The US Open hits its sharpest edge on Tuesday. Eight singles players on each side remain, the quarterfinal line is drawn, and over two days in New York the draw will be carved down to a final four.

At Flushing Meadows, this is where the tournament stops meandering and starts making statements.

Sabalenka hunts history, Americans chase her

Aryna Sabalenka has walked through the women’s draw so far. Four matches, four straight‑set wins, barely a scratch on the scoreboard. The top seed is not just defending a title; she is chasing a slice of history last owned by Serena Williams, the only woman this century to win three consecutive US Opens, from 2012 to 2014.

Sabalenka stands two wins from matching that run. The next obstacle is No. 6 seed Linda Noskova on Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, a matchup that looks, on paper, like another test of whether anyone can push the Belarusian out of her comfort zone.

The American challenge comes from familiar faces. Jessica Pegula, the No. 3 seed, carries the burden of home expectation in the night session against No. 26 Emma Navarro at 7 p.m. Two years ago, Pegula reached the US Open final only to be stopped by Sabalenka. The draw offers her a route back into the last weekend—and perhaps another collision with the woman who denied her.

Then there is Coco Gauff, the face of the new American wave and already a two‑time major champion at just 21. She claimed her first Grand Slam singles title here in 2023, then added the French Open crown in 2025. On Wednesday, the No. 4 seed meets No. 5 Mirra Andreeva in a clash of recent Roland Garros winners that promises a different kind of tension: youth, power, and no fear of the big stage.

The other half of the women’s draw brings No. 2 Elena Rybakina against Qinwen Zheng on Wednesday. Rybakina arrives as the newly top‑ranked player in the world and the reigning Australian Open champion, a combination that makes her the obvious threat to Sabalenka’s reign.

Scooby Axson sees the women’s quarterfinals tilting toward an American surge. His bracket holds firm: Pegula and Gauff both to reach the semifinals.

The route is anything but gentle. Axson tips Pegula to handle Navarro and earn a semifinal date with Noskova, who he predicts will spring the upset of the tournament by knocking out Sabalenka and helping strip her of the No. 1 ranking. On the bottom half, he has Gauff coming through against Andreeva to set up a heavyweight semifinal with Rybakina—a meeting of the US Open and Australian Open champions with the final on the line.

If that plays out, the women’s weekend in New York would belong to the power of Sabalenka’s dethroner, the rise of Rybakina, and the roar of an American crowd split between Pegula and Gauff.

A wild men’s draw, an old drought, and a familiar favorite

The men’s tournament has taken a different route to the same stage. Seeds have fallen all over the place; only three of the top 10 even made it to the fourth round. Out of that chaos has come something US tennis has craved for more than two decades: a genuine American presence deep into the second week.

No American man has won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003. The drought has hung over every promising generation since. This year, three home players stand in the last eight: No. 8 seed Ben Shelton, No. 11 Frances Tiafoe, and unseeded Alex Michelsen.

One American is guaranteed to go a step further. Tiafoe and Michelsen meet on Tuesday at 1 p.m., a showdown between an established showman and a young outsider who has quietly played his way into the biggest match of his career. Axson backs Tiafoe to end Michelsen’s longshot run and reach his third US Open semifinal after previous deep pushes in 2022 and 2024.

The night session brings the marquee name. Carlos Alcaraz, the No. 2 seed and two‑time US Open champion (2022 and 2025), faces Shelton at 8:30 p.m. The Spaniard walks into this stage as the clear favorite in a scrambled field, his all‑court game and New York pedigree making him the man to beat. Shelton, armed with one of the biggest serves in the sport, will try to turn the match into a shootout. Axson’s call is firm: Alcaraz to advance and keep his bid for a third crown alive.

On Wednesday, the top seed takes the court. Alexander Zverev, the world No. 1, gets Botic van de Zandschulp, who staggered into the quarterfinals after a five‑set marathon featuring three tiebreaks on Monday. Fatigue looms large here. Axson expects Zverev to “continue to cruise,” using his clean, heavy baseline game to exploit whatever is left in the Dutchman’s legs.

The last men’s quarterfinal is a snapshot of how wild this draw has been. No. 28 seed Alexander Blockx meets unseeded Karen Khachanov, a player with a long history of dangerous runs at majors. Khachanov has already stacked up surprises to get this far, and Axson predicts one more: an upset of Blockx to set up a semifinal against Zverev.

So the picture, if the predictions hold, looks like this: Alcaraz and Tiafoe on one side of the men’s semifinals, Zverev and Khachanov on the other. A reigning champion, a world No. 1, a surging underdog, and an American still chasing the end of that 21‑year wait.

The quarterfinals rarely decide a Grand Slam, but they do something just as important. They reveal who is truly ready to own the New York night—and who will leave Flushing Meadows wondering how close they came to changing their career.