Italy vs Türkiye: Nations League Preview, Predictions, and Lineups

Italy concludes a lengthy three-week international break by facing Türkiye at home on Monday in the UEFA Nations League. After missing out on another World Cup spot and experiencing turmoil over the summer, the Italian squad has turned back to their Euro 2020-winning coach Roberto Mancini to stabilize their performance. Though results under Mancini’s return have not been flawless, Italy convincingly defeated Türkiye 4–1 last week and secured a draw against France.

Türkiye participated in the recent World Cup but left after a disappointing group stage. Their troubles continued with three straight losses in this Nations League, putting pressure on coach Vincenzo Montella.

Historical Edge Favors Italy

This match marks the 15th meeting between Italy and Türkiye since 1962. Italy has never lost to Türkiye, holding 10 wins and four draws in their previous encounters.

Match Outlook and Prediction

Italy enters as clear favorites in Bologna. Türkiye’s defense has struggled, conceding eight goals in three Nations League matches, compounded by the absence of key players Kenan Yıldız and Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Even young talent Arda Güler from Real Madrid could not turn their fortunes around.

The Azzurri are gaining momentum after going unbeaten in two matches, starting with a dominant victory over Türkiye. Italy quickly took a three-goal lead in that game and will likely add more goals at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara.

Key Factors

• Head-to-head: Italy remains unbeaten versus Türkiye, winning three of the last four matches with at least three goals scored in those wins. Türkiye's best recent result is a 2024 draw in Italy.
• Defensive woes: Türkiye's backline issues extend beyond the Nations League; they conceded in all World Cup group matches and allowed eight goals to Spain last year.
• Italian form: Despite missing World Cup qualification, Italy has won 10 of its last 14 games across all competitions.

Prediction: Italy 3–0 Türkiye

Projected Lineups

Italy

Roberto Mancini may rotate the squad following the quick fixture turnaround but will keep the core players intact. Gianluigi Donnarumma is expected in goal, with Alessandro Bastoni anchoring defense after scoring in recent games. The fullback positions likely feature Premier League players Michael Kayode and Riccardo Calafiori. Midfield could see Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi, and the returning Nicolò Barella. Defensively, Gianluca Mancini might replace Giorgio Scalvini. Up front, the Esposito brothers, Pio and Sebastiano, should join Moise Kean.

• Formation (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Frattesi, Tonali, Barella; S. Esposito, P. Esposito, Kean.

Türkiye

Coach Montella faces absences due to suspension for key players Arda Güler and Barış Yılmaz. This forces changes upfront, with Deniz Gül likely leading the attack supported by Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Yunus Akgün. Salih Özcan might return in midfield to strengthen defensive cover.

• Formation (4-3-3): Çakır; Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu; Elmaz, Özcan, Yüksek; Akgün, Gül, Aktürkoğlu.

Match Details

• Location: Bologna, Italy
• Stadium: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara
• Date: Monday, Oct. 5
• Kick-off: 2:45 p.m. ET / 11:45 a.m. PT / 7:45 p.m. BST
• Referee: Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
• VAR: Piotr Lasyk (Poland)

Broadcast Information

• United States: Fox Sports 2, fuboTV, ViX, Fox One
• Canada: DAZN Canada, TLN, fuboTV Canada, VIVA
• Mexico: Sky Sports Mexico, Sky+, izzi
• United Kingdom: Amazon Prime Video